In October, contractual salaries reached an accumulated real growth of 3.16% so far in the year, the highest increase in history for a January-October period, according to information from the Department of Labor and Social Welfare (STPS).
With the behavior in the tenth month of the year, the salaries of unionized personnel in the federal jurisdiction have had 22 months with real increases, that is, increases that are higher than inflation, and with nominal increases not seen since 2021.
While salary negotiations started showing stronger adjustments in comparison with the averages seen in the last two decades, the inflationary context prevented positive balances in real terms to be reached.
As inflation was reduced and the trend in contractual remuneration reviews continued, salaries started to show a better performance. Up until now, the best accumulated real growth in 10 months was seen in the year 2000, when a 2.54 increase was reported.
According to Blanya Correal, a partner at TAMIM HR Consulting, the minimum wage is one of the factors that has had an influence on this trend, but it is not the only one. The quest by the unions to convince the workers’ base, after the 2019 labor reform, and the shortage of specialized profiles has also had an effect on the behavior of salary reviews.
“The historical growth of contractual salaries is linked to aspects such as pressure from the increases to the minimum wage in some collective bargaining agreement tabulators, the demands made by the union base on their union leaders for better negotiations and a retention of specialized profiles in face of the arrival of new companies as a result of the nearshoring phenomenon”, says Blanya Correal.
Rocío Hernández, director of Talent and Compensation Consulting at AON Mexico, agrees with this. “The salaries of unionized workers are increasing every year, this is due to the shortage of technical personnel that we have in Mexico, due to all of the noise that we have because of the new companies that have arrived, and I also believe that due to a change in culture; operating personnel used to make a career in one company in one city, but as years have gone by, they have been moving more.”
On the other hand, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCDE) places Mexico as one of the countries with the best performance in wages. “It has had a notable recovery in regard to salaries”, the organization pointed out in its 2024 Employment Outlook Report.
In the last five years, salaries in Mexico grew 5.4% in real terms, according to OCDE records. This performance is even better than that of the key commercial partners: the United States and Canada.
Projections for 2025
No major changes in the trend are expected for 2025. The AON Survey of Compensation of Unionized and Non-Unionized Personnel projects salary increases between 6.8% and 7.2% for workers affiliated with unions, although double-digit adjustments could be found in some industries.
The highest expectations for contractual salaries in 2025 are found in the North of the country, with an average of 8.1%, followed by the El Bajío region with 7.8 percent. By industry, the highest projections are for companies belonging to the automotive industry (8.9%), consumer products (7.4%) and food (7.3%).
